Tadhg Moore
Tadhg Moore
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Uncertainty in projections of future lake thermal dynamics is differentially driven by lake and global climate models
Lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. We found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty.
Jacob H. Wynne
,
Whitney M. Woelmer
,
Tadhg N. Moore
,
R. Quinn Thomas
,
Kathleen C. Weathers
,
Cayelan C. Carey
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DOI
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Near-term forecasts of NEON lakes reveal gradients of environmental predictability across the U.S.
We scaled a near-term, iterative water temperature forecasting system to six conterminous NEON lakes. We generated forecasts using a hydrodynamic model. Forecasts were more accurate than a null model. Lake characteristics interact with weather to control the predictability of thermal structure.
R. Quinn Thomas
,
McClure, Ryan
,
Tadhg N. Moore
,
Whitney Woelmer
,
Carl Boettiger
,
Renato Figueiredo
,
Robert Hensley
,
Cayelan Carey
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