Modelling

We assessed the skill of seasonal forecasting tools for lakes and reservoirs set up at four sites in Australia and Europe. Lake forecasts forced with an ensemble of boundary conditions resampled from historical meteorology are currently likely to yield higher-quality forecasts in most cases.

We carried out a qualitative assessment of (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season and (2) the relevance of any windows of opportunity (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, water managers were optimistic about the potential for improved decision-making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management.

Create open-source software for flexible, scalable, robust, and near-real time iterative ecological forecasts in lakes and reservoirs.

Early-career network of Aquatic Ecosystem Modellers.

The Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network conducts innovative science by sharing and interpreting high-resolution sensor data to understand, predict and communicate the role and response of lakes in a changing global environment.

Integrate state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions and water quality simulations in an advanced solution that ensures efficient decision making and adaptation of water resources management to an increasing frequency of climate extreme events.

Develop an integrated approach to couple high frequency lake monitoring data to water quality models to forecast short-term changes in lake water quality.