Projection

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change
Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.
R. Iestyn Woolway, Sapna Sharma, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Andrey Debolskiy, Malgorzata Golub, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Marjorie Perroud, Victor Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Luke Grant, Robert Ladwig, Jorrit Mesman, Tadhg N. Moore, Tom Shatwell, Inne Vanderkelen, Jay A. Austin, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Martin Dokulil, Sofia La Fuente, Eleanor B. Mackay, S. Geoffrey Schladow, Shohei Watanabe, Rafael Marcé, Don C. Pierson, Wim Thiery, Eleanor Jennings
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Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change