NEON

We scaled a near-term, iterative, water temperature forecasting system to all six NEON lakes in the conterminous US. Forecasts were more accurate than a null model. Lake characteristics interact with weather to control the predictability of thermal structure.

In this module, students will generate an ecological forecast for a NEON site and explore how to use ecological data to improve forecast accuracy. This module will introduce students to the concept of data assimilation within an ecological forecast; how data assimilation can be used to improve forecast accuracy; how the level of uncertainty and temporal frequency of observations affects forecast output; and how data assimilation can affect decision-making using ecological forecasts.

Undergraduate and graduate students who completed the module showed increased familiarity with ecological forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Integrating ecological forecasting into undergraduate ecology curricula will enhance students’ abilities to engage and understand complex ecological concepts.

We scaled a near-term, iterative water temperature forecasting system to six conterminous NEON lakes. We generated forecasts using a hydrodynamic model. Forecasts were more accurate than a null model. Lake characteristics interact with weather to control the predictability of thermal structure.

In this module, students will generate an ecological forecast for a NEON site and quantify the different sources of uncertainty within their forecast. This module will introduce students to the conceptof uncertainty within an ecological forecast; where uncertainty in a forecast comes from; how uncertainty can be quantified within a forecast; and how uncertainty can be managed.

In this module, students will apply the iterative forecasting cycle to develop an ecological forecast for a NEON site. This module will introduce students to the basic components of an ecological forecast; how a simple forecasting model is constructed; how changes to model inputs affect forecast uncertainty; and how productivity forecasts vary across ecoclimatic regions.

Create open-source software for flexible, scalable, robust, and near-real time iterative ecological forecasts in lakes and reservoirs.

Develop stand-alone, modular classroom activities for undergraduate students that use publicly-available, long-term, and high-frequency datasets to explore the core concepts of macrosystems ecology and ecological forecasting while developing quantitative literacy.